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Last modified: 2015.VII.19.14:08 - MIAÚ-RSS
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Definitions of benchmarks for modelling experts on the field of forecasting, or appendix to the Sokal-phenomenon

Leading article: 2015. June (MIAU No. 202.)
(Previous article: MIAU No. 201.)

Keywords: theory of aimlessness, Occam's razor, planning, compatition, combinatorics, AAA

Abstract: In case of forecasts different indicators can be published (c.f. numeric fitting, fitting of parallelism of directions, etc.). But, the unique indicators can not inform the Readers about the holistic description of model fitting detailed enough. For example: if the category of the adult population in Europe should be estimated with a threshold of 100 cm, then a fitting quote about 95% seems to be too low, because the real ratio of the category distribution is over 99% - what can be approximated through a monotone strategy with a better fitting as before. Therefore without rational benchmarks it is not worth launching the creation of models (c.f. legal definition of new variety/sort of plants). Benchmarks can be defined through objective declarations, subjective declarations and based on antidiscriminative solutions...
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